After the initial rounds of pre-season testing in Bahrain, Red Bull and Ferrari are emerging as the early favorites for the 2024 Formula 1 season.
Observations from Mercedes and other teams suggest they are bracing for a challenging season, expecting to be outpaced by their competitors as the races kick off in early March.
Historically, the reliability of pre-season testing times as predictors of season-long performance has been questionable, due to the myriad of variables and experimental approaches teams undertake.
However, Max Verstappen’s performance on Wednesday stood out significantly, as he clocked in 1.14 seconds faster than McLaren’s Lando Norris, who came in second, closely followed by Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz in third place.
Verstappen, the three-time world champion, did not participate in Thursday’s session at the Bahrain International Circuit, where Carlos Sainz recorded the quickest lap of the day.
Verstappen’s teammate at Red Bull, Sergio Perez, finished the day 0.75 seconds behind Sainz, with Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes securing the third-fastest time.
George Russell, who races alongside Hamilton for Mercedes, openly acknowledged their rivals’ superior speed following the sessions, admitting that the Constructors’ champions were quicker.
“Red Bull are the favorites and definitely a step ahead of everyone else. That was to be expected.”
Charles Leclerc from Ferrari has concurred with the prevailing opinion, stating that Red Bull “remains quite a bit ahead.”
However, reports from Sky Germany suggest that within the F1 community, there’s a strong belief that Ferrari is the most formidable contender to challenge the dominance of Christian Horner’s squad.
According to insights from Mercedes engineers, the performance gap between the leading two teams is estimated to be around one second. Meanwhile, Williams team members believe the disparity is closer to half a second.
Nonetheless, the consensus is that Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz could be the ones to disrupt Red Bull’s stronghold, should any driver manage to do so this season.
The pre-season has not been without its controversies, notably involving Team Principal Horner, who is under investigation due to allegations of inappropriate conduct. Despite these off-track distractions, Horner is likely pleased with his team’s performance in the Middle East.
Last season saw Red Bull dominating the Constructors’ standings, finishing 451 points ahead of Mercedes, with Ferrari trailing closely behind by three points.
The drivers’ championship was similarly lopsided, as Verstappen finished a staggering 290 points ahead of his teammate Perez, securing his third consecutive F1 title. Out of 22 Grand Prix races, Sainz was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race, with Verstappen claiming 19 victories and Perez winning two.
